First state-wide study to look at needs of all utilities
by Allen Best
A new study identifies a minimum $4.5 billion in necessary transmission investment in the next 10 to 20 years in Colorado. Beyond that?
There’s some guesswork involved, but another $4.2 billion might also be needed as Colorado stretches to eliminate emissions associated with its electricity even as demand surges from data centers, buildings and vehicle electrification. Plus, there’s continued population growth and economic expansion.
The study was commissioned by the Colorado Electric Transmission Authority, an independent political subdivision of the state created by state legislators in 2022. They endowed CETA with crucial powers to build transmission that individual utilities might not build themselves but which could be important to achieve the state’s goals.
CETA can issue low-interest revenue bonds. This can be done for projects in which CETA has partners. Such bonds would ultimately lower costs to consumers.
Where will CETA use that power to best advantage for Colorado? CETA hopes to identify three to five candidate projects by the end of 2025 or early 2026, according to Maury Galbraith, the chief executive. He told Big Pivots that CETA is probably a year or two away from doing detailed studies.
First, however, CETA directors need to select guidelines for evaluating which projects to choose. That will require additional legal and financial expertise that will cost more than what is available from the state’s $500,000 annual appropriation. Galbraith says he hopes to secure a federal grant or perhaps tap private philanthropy to move the planning forward rapidly. Otherwise, this next step may take a couple of years.
As for this new study, it was ordered by legislators in 2023. Kathleen Staks, the chair of the CETA board of directors, told the combined House and Senate energy committees on Jan. 16 that the law, SB23-016, required the study to address whether and how the expanded capacity will support the forecasted demand for electricity in Colorado, reduce emissions, and improve access to organized wholesale markets.
Keegan Moyer, the principle of Energy Strategies, the consultant hired to do the year-long study that was conducted in 2024, further simplified the mission to one of identifying long-term gaps in the state’s transmission needs.
Utilities already have much new transmission underway or planned for the next decade. Most prominently, Xcel expects to wrap up its new 550-mile semi-loop around eastern Colorado, called the Colorado Power Pathway, by 2027. It is protected to comes in at a cost of $1.7 to $2 billion. Xcel and other utilities have proposals for other lines.
The study found lesser problem areas looking out to 2035 that need to be addressed. Those problem areas are in the San Luis Valley, southeastern Colorado, and northeastern Colorado.
The study’s greater value was looking out 20 years. The consultants created two projections of peak demand for electricity to 2045. The lower-demand forecast, called business as usual, forecasts that peak electrical demand, which is now 10 gigawatts, will grow to 14 gigawatts. On the high end, peak demand could double to 20 gigawatts.
Demand growth represents a “significant uncertainty when it comes to grid planning,” Moyer told legislators. And where new generation will be placed is another significant uncertainty, he said.
Galbraith, in an interview with Big Pivots prior to the legislative hearing, said the most likely growth in demand will lie somewhere between these extremes.
In this longer time horizon, inefficiencies of the existing system grow, requiring more investment.
Moyer told legislators that 80% of needs on line miles could be addressed on existing transmission corridors, by repurposing and upgrading capacity with aid of new technology.
That will still leave about 550 miles of new “greenfield” transmission lines in Colorado by 2045. For reference, driving from Raton Pass at the New Mexico border to the Wyoming border north of Fort Collins is about 300 miles. For those who travel I-70 across Colorado, it’s 450 miles.
The study is focused on Colorado but does consider the possibility of transmission connections beyond the state borders.
Colorado has struggled for much of the last 20 years to create cohesive transmission planning. Some of those involved still speak about the efforts with exasperation.
Galbraith said this represents the first statewide study to examine total needs of all utilities. In its 20-year time horizon, it also looks further into the future than anything previously. And third, it provides a different approach to a traditional chicken-and-egg problem in transmission studies, namely which comes first, the generation or the transmission planning.
“We had Energy Strategies focus on what new generation capacity would be needed over the next 20 years and really detail it down to the substation level,” Galbraith said. The strategy used in the study, he added, represents a “plausible generation buildout in the state.”
Transmission often takes long planning horizons. The general figure used is 10 years. Xcel’s Colorado Power Pathway will come in below that. It was proposed in 2021 and will be completed in 2027, according to Xcel’s current projections.
The Anschutz Company’s TransWest Express transmission line to export wind-generated electricity from southern Wyoming, in contrast, took 17 years from first conception to beginning of construction. It’s a much more involved affair, though. The 600-kV direct-current line is to stretch 728 miles from its origin near Rawlins, Wyo., to markets in the Phoenix, Las Vegas and Los Angeles areas. It will nick the northwest corner of Colorado
Gateway South, a 416-mile transmission line also being built to deliver wind power from Wyoming to more westerly markets, will also cross northwest Colorado, as shown in the map above.
Might CETA use its authority to deliver a link into that network? Yes, said Galbraith, it is a candidate, possibly among the short list of potential projects defined by CETA by the end of July.
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